Ernst & Young may have started its business career as an audit company, but now it is also venturing into forecasting businesses such as the automotive industry. Now called just EY, the consulting company has developed the EY Mobility Lens Forecaster, a forecast modeling tool powered by artificial intelligence. That tool said EVs would outsell ICE cars by 2033 if you combine sales in Europe, China, and the US.
Taking each of these markets separately, Europe will see EVs outselling automobiles powered by engines in 2028. China will follow in 2033. If nothing changes, EV adoption in the US will be the slowest one. Even so, the country will see EVs taking over by 2036. Joe Biden promised he would rush things up with more incentives to electric cars and the American automotive companies, but we are still waiting for the changes. By 2045, only 1% of car sales should be for ICE models in these three markets.
According to the EY Mobility Lens Forecaster, Europe will be the center for EV sales volumes until 2031. From 2032 up to 2050, China will lead take that lead, as it already has when it comes to general sales as the most prominent car market in the world.
One curious bit about the forecast is that it credits EV growth to the pandemic. Customers that used to defend public transportation or car-sharing suddenly saw their transportation options restricted due to contamination risks. In other words, they would have to have a car, but they decided they would not buy a regular one: they would get the clean option. It makes perfect sense.
While time will tell if the EY Mobility Lens Forecaster got its predictions right or not, EY is pretty confident it has a valuable tool to offer. Its AI component includes variables that reflect regulatory trends, buyer behavior, the evolution of technologies, and what automakers have disclosed they intend to do. Factual market inputs are confronted with the predictions so that the EY Mobility Lens Forecaster can adjust and make more precise guesses in the future. Our hunch is that we will hear a lot about it from now on.